Market trends

Investors are right to focus on the US debt ceiling showdown these days, instead of key upcoming economic releases including the May jobs report. While a US default would unleash global economic Armageddon, markets have been relatively calm so far.

After two years of rallying, energy stocks have experienced a turn in fortunes in 2023 as commodity prices continue to slide. Nevertheless, the STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas index has retained some attributes, such as positive active exposures to the Earnings Yield and Value factors.

The STOXX Global 1800 index rose 1.8% in dollars in April, and the STOXX World AC added 1.5%, following better-than-expected economic and business reports. There were gains across all regions, and Low Risk was the leading factor in the month.

The STOXX Global 1800 index rose 3% in dollars and only 0.6% in euros in March. The Fed on March 22 increased its key borrowing rate by 25 basis points to the highest since 2007, but removed from a statement previous references to the need for “ongoing” rate rises.

The collapse of a Californian bank triggered a rapidly-spreading banking crisis, with Europe suffering the brunt of it. European Banks, Financial Services firms and Insurers have fallen more than their US counterparts, while the risk of each one of those sectors in Europe has jumped.

The recent collapse of several banks has sparked fears of a 2011-style “doom loop,” in which losses in the financial sector spread to the wider economy. So far, contagion has been limited, but a further deterioration in credit quality could result in drawdowns across all sectors.

Two panels at the SRP Europe Conference 2023 discussed the role of index design in building structured products for a changing market landscape. Topics covered include rising interest rates and volatility, and growing demand for sustainability and thematic investment strategies.

The STOXX Global 1800 index fell 2.3% in dollars but climbed 0.1% in euros in February. Better-than-expected US economic reports in the month raised concerns that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates further and for longer.

Since late 2021, the STOXX Emerging Markets 1500 index has shown lower forecast and realized volatility than the STOXX Global 1800, a benchmark for developed economies. Using Axioma’s Factor Risk Models, a new whitepaper from Qontigo’s Applied Research team investigates the drivers of this anomaly.

Throughout 2022 and into 2023, the EM gauge has shown lower forecast and realized volatility than the global DM benchmark. A new whitepaper investigates the drivers of this anomaly.

Using Axioma’s Macroeconomic Projection Model, we decompose the risk factors that drove returns in the STOXX Global Broad Infrastructure between 2020 and 2022. The results show the index had a positive exposure to the risk model’s inflation factors, meaning it stood to benefit from rising global inflation expectations.

The STOXX Global 1800 index rose 7% in dollars and 5.1% in euros last month, amid expectations that inflation worldwide may have peaked and that any recession in key developed economies may be mild.