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Statistical analysis and probability theory have long focused on the problem of trying to detect turning points in financial markets.
Global stocks posted a gain in May, even as emerging markets were engulfed in volatility and political developments in Italy triggered losses in Europe in the second part of the month.
The size factor’s risk premium is among the most well-documented, and investing in small-cap companies has yielded consistent results over recent years.
Global stocks fell for a second consecutive month in March, as concern about a disruption in trade and weakness in technology shares dampened investor sentiment.
A recent report by Research Affiliates1 states that while momentum is one of the most compelling risk premia factors, there is a significant performance gap between theoretical and live results, with the latter proving considerably weaker.
Volatility returned to markets in February, whiplashing investors accustomed to a long stretch of solid and stable returns, and causing the worst monthly performance in two years for global equities.
Last year, net inflows into so-called smart beta exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and products (ETPs) worldwide rose 33.2% from $54 billion in 2016 to $72 billion, according to ETFGI.
Rather than slow down, the record-breaking rally in global equities accelerated in the first month of 2018, with little clouding investors’ increasing conviction that the world economy is on firm footing.
After a bumper year for equities, strategists are forecasting further gains for 2018, while pointing to risks from rising bond yields and higher volatility.
Global stock indices extended their record-breaking rally in December to end 2017 with the biggest annual returns since 2013.
Despite the Fed’s and the ECB’s divergent trajectories, the dollar fell against the euro to $1.18 in December from $1.05 in January, confounding expectations. At the start of 2017, the average forecast from five banks pointed to the euro ending the year at $1.05.
The post-crisis economic recovery gathered pace in 2017 as the Eurozone and Japan joined the global growth momentum, helping investors push risk assets higher.